Tue, Jan 27, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 05 | 29 | 18 | 322 |
| PIT | 19 | 19 | 312 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09PITNick SpalingAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 2:13WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Adam Lowry, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:47WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:55PITSteve DownieAssists: Kris Letang, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 0:59WPGAdam LowryAssists: Chris Thorburn, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:23PITDavid PerronPPAssists: Kris Letang, Chris Kunitz · Tip-in, 0.43 xG3–3
- P3 7:52PITBrandon SutterPPGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.28 xG3–4
- P3 19:32PITPatric HornqvistENAssists: Paul Martin, Kris Letang · Wrap-around, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:48WPGChris Thorburn: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:27WPGBen Chiarot: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:27PITZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:26WPGChris Thorburn: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:26PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:54WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:39WPGAdam Lowry: Charging2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Kane – Lowry12:28
xG 0.91–0.18 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Slater – Peluso – Halischuk7:29
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:23
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele12:07
xG 0.14–0.66 (17%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian18:30
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba3:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien2:03
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Downie – Arcobello9:43
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Sutter – Bennett10:24
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Adams – Ebbett – Sill7:45
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Spaling – Perron10:14
xG 0.12–1.02 (11%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang15:26
xG 0.92–0.08 (92%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres15:39
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Bortuzzo12:25
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).