Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 211 | 15 | 328 |
| CBJ | 06 | 312 | 112 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:45CBJMark LetestuAssists: Corey Tropp, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:39CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Kevin Connauton, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 16:12WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:04CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Cam Atkinson, Dalton Prout · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 19:40WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 5:20CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 12:09WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Marcus Johansson, John Carlson · Snap, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:38WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:03WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P1 17:56CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:39WSHJack Hillen: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:13CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25CBJJared Boll: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:19WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:15WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:43
xG 0.93–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Laich – Beagle – Wilson2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr6:05
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson3:43
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner16:31
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Green – Hillen11:10
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Orpik – Carlson11:35
xG 0.62–0.89 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 1–3
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen9:25
xG 1.05–0.45 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:22
xG 0.18–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Calvert – Morin – Wennberg5:27
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Dubinsky – Anderson8:24
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout13:17
xG 0.97–0.30 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton13:13
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard14:10
xG 0.40–0.85 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).