Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 116 | 116 | 010 | 242 |
| MTL | 29 | 110 | 07 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Brandon Prust, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:53MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Sergei Gonchar · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:57DALJamie BennAssists: Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:37MTLBrendan GallagherPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 10:05DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P2 3:38DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01MTLBrandon Prust: Interference2 min
- P2 5:21MTLAlexei Emelin: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 5:21MTLAlexei Emelin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:47DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:28DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:03DALJason Spezza: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:16MTLJiri Sekac: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:36DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59MTLDale Weise: Holding2 min
- P3 15:56MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Fiddler – Sceviour7:08
xG 0.69–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin10:56
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:04
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Spezza – Hemsky8:31
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn10:46
xG 1.10–0.09 (92%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:40
xG 0.69–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Daley – Schlemko11:10
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:18
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Bournival – Thomas4:09
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac11:08
xG 0.07–0.50 (13%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Weise10:07
xG 0.19–0.65 (22%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban12:59
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu4:47
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin7:20
xG 0.25–0.71 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).