Tue, Jan 27, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 5, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 49 | 09 | 527 |
| FLA | 210 | 116 | 115 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06DETDrew MillerSHAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:08FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:16FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 0:32DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 7:07DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Stephen Weiss, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 8:26DETStephen WeissAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 11:19DETLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P2 15:30FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 10:54FLABrad BoyesAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:32DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 8:46DETKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:18FLABrian Campbell: Interference2 min
- P2 3:27DETPavel Datsyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:21DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:28DETDrew Miller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Helm – Tatar13:59
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Andersson6:28
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist12:37
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Weiss – Sheahan – Glendening9:37
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet17:01
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:20
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:12
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Bjugstad11:44
xG 0.85–0.55 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov13:22
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall7:25
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Bergenheim – Bolland10:47
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad18:09
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson2:03
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Olsen – Gudbranson10:57
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).