Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 19 | 17 | 03 | 324 |
| NSH | 08 | 214 | 115 | 12 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52COLCody McLeodAssists: Zach Redmond, John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:33NSHRoman JosiAssists: Shea Weber, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:21NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Seth Jones, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 16:05COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 0:32NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:24COLNick HoldenAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- OT 2:46NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:21COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:20NSHAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P1 19:57NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:57COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:42COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47NSHPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Everberg9:42
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche8:19
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:09
xG 0.33–0.81 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene13:39
xG 0.19–0.96 (16%)attempts 7–20goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Redmond15:04
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Stuart – Holden12:47
xG 0.34–0.71 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
- Guenin – Barrie16:06
xG 0.16–0.87 (15%)attempts 5–22goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok11:15
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:57
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson12:01
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Gaustad – Nystrom7:35
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:24
xG 1.93–0.19 (91%)attempts 36–12goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Jones3:31
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bartley – Jones13:38
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).