Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 09 | 110 | 229 |
| EDM | 05 | 16 | 013 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 17:16EDMBoyd GordonAssists: Matt Hendricks, Oscar Klefbom · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 15:37MINCharlie CoyleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:37MINMikael Granlund: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 9:50MINMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34EDMRob Klinkhammer: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:46EDMJeff Petry: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:38MINRyan Suter: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:47EDMNail Yakupov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:47MINDevan Dubnyk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Coyle – Niederreiter6:18
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Zucker10:07
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine2:19
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise3:41
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Spurgeon14:14
xG 1.11–0.30 (79%)attempts 20–4goals 1–0
- Prosser – Folin4:43
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Brodin20:59
xG 0.97–0.89 (52%)attempts 21–25goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:23
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov10:16
xG 0.69–0.84 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins14:28
xG 0.51–0.79 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Fraser4:48
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom16:53
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Fayne14:00
xG 0.22–0.73 (24%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry13:11
xG 0.46–1.00 (31%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).