Wed, Jan 28, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 011 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 130 |
| NJD | 06 | 07 | 19 | 01 | 2 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:49TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, David Clarkson · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 17:10NJDAdam LarssonAssists: Martin Havlat, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NJD Scott Gomez stopped
- 2. TOR Mike Santorelli stopped
- 3. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 4. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 5. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:00NJDJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:11TORMike Santorelli: Delaying game2 min
- P2 1:50TORDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:20NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:57TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 18:52NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:53NJDMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:53TORPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:42NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P3 12:59NJDAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – van Riemsdyk – Bozak7:57
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Winnik – Holland11:38
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Booth – Smith – Panik4:56
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kessel – Kadri7:47
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly15:47
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Polak – Holzer2:00
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holzer – Granberg2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Havlat – Zajac11:20
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson3:21
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Cammalleri – Bernier9:29
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Henrique8:52
xG 0.04–0.14 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson13:24
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill8:31
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Fraser13:34
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).