Wed, Jan 28, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 08 | 08 | 027 |
| WSH | 18 | 114 | 214 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 17:19WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 11:02WSHEric FehrAssists: Brooks Laich, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–3
- P3 12:24WSHMike GreenAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 7:35WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:14WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:14PITZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:15WSHJack Hillen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:51PITDavid Perron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:40PITRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:41WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:41PITSteve Downie: Abuse of officials10 min
- P3 14:03PITZach Sill: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:03WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:03WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min
- P3 15:26PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:15WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:01WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01PITDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01PITDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron11:51
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Adams – Ebbett – Sill5:23
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Sutter – Bennett8:51
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Downie – Spaling8:26
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Bortuzzo13:38
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang12:30
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres9:27
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr12:20
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle10:37
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Chimera – Latta – Wilson6:28
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:31
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner15:38
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson16:09
xG 0.98–0.64 (60%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Green – Hillen12:32
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).