Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 116 | 26 | 533 |
| NYI | 015 | 216 | 014 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59BOSReilly SmithAssists: Milan Lucic, David Krejci · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:09BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 8:25NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 15:12NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Johnny Boychuk, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:56BOSKevan MillerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 1:45BOSTorey KrugAssists: Reilly Smith, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 17:54BOSMilan LucicENAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.58 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:16BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:22NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:16BOSCarl Soderberg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham7:45
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Smith11:47
xG 0.77–0.89 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand13:53
xG 0.46–1.14 (29%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Kelly – Soderberg – Pastrnak8:33
xG 0.27–0.99 (21%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – McQuaid14:17
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Krug3:22
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller3:24
xG 0.02–0.26 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson8:47
xG 1.56–0.26 (86%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Bailey – Tavares13:26
xG 1.13–0.35 (76%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome10:10
xG 0.15–0.77 (16%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:19
xG 1.48–0.54 (73%)attempts 27–10goals 1–2
- Hamonic – de Haan16:40
xG 1.44–0.72 (67%)attempts 18–23goals 1–0
- Strait – Hickey16:01
xG 0.96–0.65 (60%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).