Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 1, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 08 | 17 | 126 |
| NYR | 010 | 06 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 15:43MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Dale Weise, Alexei Emelin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:29NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding2 min
- P1 13:05MTLP.K. Subban: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:05NYRChris Kreider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:12NYRChris Kreider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:12MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:38NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:38MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NYRDerek Stepan: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:16NYRRick Nash: Interference2 min
- P2 9:09MTLLars Eller: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:24NYRDominic Moore: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Weise11:09
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Bournival – Thomas3:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac10:46
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:04
xG 0.35–0.48 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin11:48
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban16:08
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu12:44
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider11:58
xG 0.94–0.38 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:02
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin2:22
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Glass – Hayes3:36
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:48
xG 1.03–0.79 (57%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Klein – Staal13:25
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Moore9:17
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).