Thu, Jan 29, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 312 | 016 | 313 | 641 |
| OTT | 28 | 08 | 112 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37DALJamie BennPPAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:36DALColton SceviourAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 11:58DALAles HemskyPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Colton Sceviour · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 16:02OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P1 18:30OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P3 2:45OTTAlex ChiassonAssists: Kyle Turris · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:51DALJohn KlingbergGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 19:08DALTrevor DaleyENAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–3
- P3 19:33DALJamie BennENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:05DALShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:11OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:48OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:22DALRyan Garbutt: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:27OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25DALAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:34DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:34OTTErik Karlsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:02DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Spezza – Hemsky11:46
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:21
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Sceviour5:10
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin11:18
xG 0.43–0.84 (34%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Schlemko5:33
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:10
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Daley – Demers3:43
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Zibanejad11:56
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Michalek – Turris – Stone7:25
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Pageau3:57
xG 0.12–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Chiasson4:56
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci10:33
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Methot – Karlsson18:52
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Phillips – Gryba12:18
xG 0.22–0.45 (32%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).