Thu, Jan 29, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 09 | 25 | 328 |
| SJS | 19 | 517 | 07 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P1 7:23SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 2:15SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: James Sheppard, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:16SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 12:37SJSMatt IrwinGWGAssists: Logan Couture · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 14:30SJSJames SheppardAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 16:07SJSBrenden DillonSHAssists: Matt Nieto, Matt Tennyson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 1:23ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.30 xG2–6
- P3 18:50ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:00ANAKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:36ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36SJSAndrew Desjardins: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:36SJSAndrew Desjardins: Kneeing2 min
- P1 13:23ANABen Lovejoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:55ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:32ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58SJSJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:58ANAPatrick Maroon: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon12:28
xG 1.54–0.37 (81%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell8:22
xG 1.06–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri11:15
xG 0.89–0.31 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Thompson – Bourque – Smith-Pelly7:30
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen12:12
xG 1.45–0.18 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm14:24
xG 1.13–0.53 (68%)attempts 22–21goals 2–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler13:29
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Scott – McGinn7:33
xG 0.40–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Couture2:29
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson8:27
xG 0.12–0.63 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Hertl8:08
xG 0.24–1.01 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Tennyson14:54
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Hannan – Irwin10:00
xG 0.29–1.51 (16%)attempts 8–19goals 2–3
- Burns – Vlasic15:03
xG 0.32–1.61 (16%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).