Fri, Jan 30, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New Jersey Devils 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 06 | 120 | 13 | 243 |
| NJD | 04 | 03 | 17 | 00 | 114 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:08NJDSteve BernierUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 16:49PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- OT 2:21PITSimon DespresGWGAssists: Brandon Sutter, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:39PITSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:39PITMaxim Lapierre: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:07NJDMark Fraser: Interference2 min
- P2 8:40NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P2 19:56PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:56NJDDainius Zubrus: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:31NJDPeter Harrold: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Ebbett – Sill5:54
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Downie – Arcobello7:03
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Downie – Spaling2:13
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron12:46
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Despres17:00
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang2:29
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Harrington2:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Havlat – Zajac12:44
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Jagr – Gomez – Henrique13:36
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson6:40
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Cammalleri – Bernier10:50
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson18:23
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill2:49
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fraser – Harrold2:01
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).