Fri, Jan 30, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 0, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 08 | 08 | 023 |
| COL | 19 | 010 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:49COLMax TalbotGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P3 5:54COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 18:49COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.66 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:23NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 3:43COLZach Redmond: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:33NSHMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:33NSHMike Ribeiro: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:33NSHMike Ribeiro: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:57NSHTaylor Beck: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok8:21
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:02
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Neal2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck6:49
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones2:39
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi15:34
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Bartley – Jones12:15
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Talbot – Cliche6:17
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:46
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene10:57
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – Everberg2:20
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Hejda2:01
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Hejda – Redmond13:55
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Guenin – Barrie15:39
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).