Fri, Jan 30, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 18 | 06 | 222 |
| VAN | 111 | 212 | 215 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00BUFChris StewartPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 19:36VANBo HorvatAssists: Zack Kassian, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 1:43VANYannick WeberPPAssists: Chris Higgins, Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:19VANNick BoninoPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 14:16BUFChris StewartPPAssists: Brian Flynn, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 5:31VANChris HigginsAssists: Chris Tanev, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:25VANRadim VrbataENAssists: Chris Tanev, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:54BUFTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:22VANLinden Vey: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 6:46VANYannick Weber: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00BUFAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13BUFBrian Gionta: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45VANZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:01VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:59BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:10VANLinden Vey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn10:29
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell8:31
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons11:58
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Meszaros – Weber10:01
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers14:10
xG 0.13–0.66 (17%)attempts 5–24goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov9:46
xG 0.00–0.93 (0%)attempts 0–20goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Matthias – Bonino8:31
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata9:26
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Horvat – Kenins9:46
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Vey7:38
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Corrado13:26
xG 0.97–0.02 (98%)attempts 19–1goals 1–0
- Weber – Sbisa9:40
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev12:09
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).