Fri, Jan 30, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 113 | 214 | 16 | 433 |
| ANA | 07 | 07 | 18 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 9:16CHIDuncan KeithGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:23CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 10:06ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 13:25CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Patrick Sharp, Johnny Oduya · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:50CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00ANAPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:16ANATim Jackman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:07ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:55CHIAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:31CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Sharp – Kane11:20
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–2goals 2–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:13
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Teravainen10:43
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Nordstrom9:09
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Oduya11:32
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson2:32
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Rundblad6:54
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Thompson – Smith-Pelly2:45
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Maroon – Palmieri3:09
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Smith-Pelly6:09
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon6:18
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Vatanen13:40
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler14:59
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:09
xG 0.32–0.77 (29%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).