Sat, Jan 31, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 0, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 017 | 010 | 00 | 036 |
| MTL | 07 | 06 | 015 | 12 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 3:08MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:32WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P1 8:55MTLMichael Bournival: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:26WSHBrooks Laich: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:26MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:15WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 3:15MTLTomas Plekanec: Interference2 min
- P2 8:01MTLTom Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:50MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:59MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P3 6:27WSHBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr4:45
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Ward – Ovechkin – Backstrom3:36
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Fehr – Beagle2:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Beagle6:39
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner11:02
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Orpik – Alzner2:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson13:41
xG 0.71–0.80 (47%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Thomas – Sekac5:20
xG 0.63–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:48
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Weise9:21
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac3:52
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin12:21
xG 0.80–0.40 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban13:59
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu11:12
xG 0.06–0.71 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).