Sat, Jan 31, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 213 | 28 | 532 |
| WPG | 010 | 118 | 112 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P2 10:14WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Mark Stuart, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:21DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Ales Hemsky · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 18:47DALJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 4:31DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 8:40DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG5–1
- P3 12:46WPGToby EnstromAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:33WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:33DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:58WPGBen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:33DALAles Hemsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:07WPGZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:40WPGJim Slater: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:40DALRyan Garbutt: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:31WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:32WPGZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02WPGDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:26WPGMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:17WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17WPGAndrew Ladd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:17DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:43DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Seguin8:57
xG 0.68–0.08 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:59
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Sceviour4:53
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Eakin2:22
xG 0.00–0.70 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg12:14
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Daley – Demers5:42
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn4:55
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:56
xG 1.39–0.36 (79%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Kane – Lowry11:14
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso2:39
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele11:00
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien10:56
xG 1.75–0.36 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Trouba2:07
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Trouba5:52
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).