Sun, Feb 1, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
St. Louis Blues 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 216 | 111 | 440 |
| WSH | 18 | 118 | 110 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:50WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:45STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
- P2 14:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:57STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 6:13STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:28WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:30WSHJay Beagle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:51STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:19STLIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:34WSHJay Beagle: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:25STLDavid Backes: Boarding5 min
- P2 5:25STLDavid Backes: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:24WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:24STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:59WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Tarasenko6:49
xG 1.37–0.21 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Stastny – Schwartz – Jaskin5:30
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie5:00
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz4:04
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Gunnarsson7:33
xG 1.09–0.09 (93%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:44
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jackman – Gunnarsson2:04
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson5:54
xG 1.36–0.29 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Brouwer – Kuznetsov2:29
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Latta – Wilson5:03
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr10:39
xG 0.13–0.35 (26%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner11:36
xG 1.78–0.76 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Carlson2:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner4:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).