Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 19 | 29 | 430 |
| NYI | 112 | 114 | 08 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:43FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 10:15FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brandon Pirri · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:45NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Travis Hamonic, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:10FLAJimmy HayesPPGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–2
- P3 19:37FLABrandon PirriENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:47FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:25FLABrandon Pirri: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:01NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:38FLABrandon Pirri: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bolland – Pirri10:34
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall8:52
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad11:59
xG 0.59–0.75 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:55
xG 0.26–0.71 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic17:13
xG 1.38–1.30 (52%)attempts 25–20goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:30
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Campbell – Ekblad15:23
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee15:08
xG 0.92–0.37 (72%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Grabner – Nelson – Strome8:56
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:49
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Kulemin10:02
xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan16:52
xG 0.81–0.41 (66%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:46
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
- Boychuk – Leddy16:39
xG 0.92–0.98 (48%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).