Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 06 | 014 | 00 | 131 |
| STL | 02 | 010 | 15 | 11 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:20TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Alex Killorn, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 16:50STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:16STLJaden SchwartzGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Brian Elliott · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:21STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:02TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:33TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:33TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:30STLTy Rattie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Stamkos12:25
xG 0.87–0.38 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:09
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly9:16
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Killorn – Paquette – Drouin10:38
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Witkowski7:28
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman6:55
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr5:36
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Oshie – Schwartz3:21
xG 0.57–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:20
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Lindstrom – Rattie – Jaskin6:26
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:56
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Cole2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Butler – Gunnarsson13:53
xG 0.97–1.00 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Jackman – Cole10:24
xG 0.04–0.30 (11%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).