Wed, Feb 4, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 011 | 18 | 129 |
| CGY | 010 | 310 | 03 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:28CGYKris RussellAssists: Paul Byron, Josh Jooris · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:55CGYJiri HudlerPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 18:03CGYMason RaymondAssists: Joe Colborne, TJ Brodie · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:48SJSJohn ScottAssists: Scott Hannan, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:45CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:04SJSJohn Scott: Cross checking2 min
- P1 3:04CGYBrandon Bollig: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:16CGYDavid Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:16SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:04SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:56SJSTomas Hertl: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 7:12CGYDeryk Engelland: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson12:31
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Hertl9:43
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Scott – Tierney3:35
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto10:19
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic11:06
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Dillon – Tennyson12:23
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Irwin – Tennyson2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan10:18
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig6:10
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma11:04
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Jooris6:31
xG 0.12–0.31 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Brodie18:43
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell13:20
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Engelland – Diaz9:06
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).