Thu, Feb 5, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 211 | 07 | 01 | 2 | 330 |
| PHI | 16 | 15 | 05 | 02 | 1 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43PHINick SchultzAssists: Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:38PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 16:48NYIMikhail GrabovskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 18:47NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Brock Nelson, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 6. PHI Wayne Simmonds scored
- 7. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
- 8. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
- 9. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 10. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 11. NYI Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 12. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 13. NYI Cal Clutterbuck scored
- 14. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:11PHIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:11NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:41PHIMark Streit: Delaying game2 min
- P3 2:30NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:27
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome9:20
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Grabner – Kulemin – Nelson9:19
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Clutterbuck – Cizikas2:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:49
xG 1.14–0.15 (89%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey12:57
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy16:28
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:56
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- White – Simmonds – Laughton8:25
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn13:47
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Umberger – Read – Couturier14:17
xG 0.20–0.81 (20%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Del Zotto13:55
xG 0.73–0.77 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Streit – Del Zotto2:23
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz16:23
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).