Thu, Feb 5, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 216 | 07 | 229 |
| OTT | 06 | 110 | 010 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:15OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 13:28WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Brooks Orpik, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:17WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 0:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:30OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:01WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:20WSHAlex Ovechkin: Charging2 min
- P3 2:25WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:08WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:50OTTMilan Michalek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson8:14
xG 0.08–0.02 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky7:30
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:23
xG 0.41–0.63 (39%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr10:48
xG 0.25–0.61 (30%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner16:30
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson14:43
xG 0.32–0.18 (65%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Green – Hillen13:00
xG 0.15–0.56 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Stone10:26
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Neil – Condra – Pageau5:05
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Michalek – Lazar5:57
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar2:13
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:53
xG 1.03–0.77 (57%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Phillips – Karlsson2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen2:38
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).