Thu, Feb 5, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 5, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 216 | 12 | 526 |
| NSH | 010 | 012 | 224 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08ANAJakob SilfverbergSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:04ANASami VatanenAssists: Clayton Stoner, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 3:51ANAMatt BeleskeyGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 4:34ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Cam Fowler, Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 4:00NSHColin WilsonAssists: Victor Bartley, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 15:53NSHJames NealPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 18:41ANACorey PerryENAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:52ANAEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:21ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:56NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:09NSHPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
- P2 1:50NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:08ANAEric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 19:48NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:28ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Jackman – Maroon – Smith-Pelly7:32
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Bourque – Rakell10:46
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:31
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Thompson – Beleskey – Palmieri8:09
xG 0.02–0.52 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Vatanen12:55
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm16:38
xG 0.50–1.01 (33%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Brewer – Fowler13:14
xG 0.16–0.71 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Wilson6:04
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg4:36
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Forsberg3:31
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Wilson6:56
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones11:24
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi15:34
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Ekholm11:07
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).