Thu, Feb 5, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 06 | 316 | 529 |
| DAL | 011 | 217 | 18 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan Callahan, Mark Barberio · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 6:42TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 15:21DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 15:36DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Shawn Horcoff · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 12:27TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 13:41DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 16:23TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Brian Boyle, Ondrej Palat · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:43TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:18TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:31TBLValtteri Filppula: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:50TBLLuke Witkowski: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:50DALAntoine Roussel: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:55TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:20TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P2 19:10DALErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:23DALJason Demers: Elbowing2 min
- P3 10:36DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown5:46
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos9:55
xG 0.54–0.70 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
- Killorn – Paquette – Drouin8:41
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:32
xG 0.27–0.75 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Sustr6:47
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Barberio7:56
xG 0.56–0.37 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sustr5:16
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Hemsky10:38
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:56
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour6:56
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin8:57
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg13:03
xG 1.12–0.46 (71%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Daley – Jokipakka10:11
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn11:39
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).