Thu, Feb 5, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 113 | 211 | 329 |
| COL | 012 | 09 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:25DETJustin AbdelkaderPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–0
- P3 17:24DETDarren HelmENAssists: Tomas Tatar, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–0
- P3 19:45DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:44DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:44COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:05DETStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
- P1 18:34DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:47COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:23DETKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:12COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:18
xG 0.81–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Weiss – Sheahan – Glendening7:07
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Jurco5:56
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar12:23
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Marchenko14:06
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson13:58
xG 0.46–0.27 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:20
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon12:57
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche3:58
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Mitchell2:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Everberg6:49
xG 0.14–0.52 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Holden13:21
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Elliott2:15
xG 0.14–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hejda – Redmond17:06
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).