Fri, Feb 6, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 07 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 225 |
| WSH | 06 | 112 | 113 | 03 | 2 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:15WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:44WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jason Chimera · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:45ANACorey PerryAssists: Rene Bourque, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
- 4. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 6. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:44WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00WSHMarcus Johansson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:59ANAPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fehr won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:45
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Bourque – Rakell10:50
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Jackman – Thompson – Maroon6:39
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Perry – Bourque2:01
xG 0.04–0.04 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen16:45
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler16:15
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm17:14
xG 0.18–0.91 (16%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Brouwer – Kuznetsov13:43
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Beagle – Latta – Wilson9:41
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr12:08
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:52
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHillen – Schilling11:34
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner20:49
xG 0.73–0.50 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson17:35
xG 0.70–0.78 (47%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).