Fri, Feb 6, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 18 | 017 | 133 |
| CBJ | 28 | 316 | 29 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44CBJNick FolignoAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Corey Tropp · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 18:16CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 5:06CBJRyan JohansenSHAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 8:26CBJCorey TroppAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Nick Foligno · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 11:14STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 16:17CBJNick FolignoAssists: James Wisniewski, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 5:59CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Jack Johnson, Jared Boll · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 15:21CBJScott HartnellAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:29CBJRyan Murray: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:12CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:07CBJMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:51CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Goc – Reaves8:54
xG 0.50–0.21 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:04
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Stastny – Oshie – Schwartz4:38
xG 0.18–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Berglund – Jaskin10:23
xG 0.31–0.35 (48%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole13:37
xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Butler – Gunnarsson16:45
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 19–12goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:11
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Tropp13:46
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Skille – Anisimov – Wennberg11:11
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Calvert7:42
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Johansen13:49
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray10:53
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton16:39
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:31
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).