Fri, Feb 6, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 112 | 17 | 430 |
| CGY | 07 | 07 | 07 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46PITDavid PerronGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:10PITBrandon SutterAssists: Simon Despres, Rob Scuderi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 11:58PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:19PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.11 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:26PITSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24CGYRaphael Diaz: Holding2 min
- P2 9:23PITRobert Bortuzzo: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:11PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:55CGYDavid Jones: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:47PITDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron10:44
xG 0.96–0.23 (81%)attempts 19–6goals 3–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Arcobello10:21
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Spaling7:22
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Sill8:48
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang12:41
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres12:23
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot10:34
xG 0.44–0.47 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestByron – Bouma – Jooris3:34
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Colborne – Gaudreau – Monahan3:45
xG 0.10–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bollig2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig3:45
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Diaz10:46
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell15:33
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie13:59
xG 0.40–0.84 (32%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).