Sat, Feb 7, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 112 | 110 | 232 |
| NSH | 08 | 210 | 15 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:49NYRRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 18:39NSHRoman JosiAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 19:20NSHShea WeberAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Cullen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 1:37NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 12:46NSHMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:21NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P2 10:38NSHShea Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:29NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kreider – Zuccarello12:21
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Nash – Hayes12:32
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Hagelin2:09
xG 0.01–0.03 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Hagelin3:29
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – McDonagh2:44
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal4:42
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Moore2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:18
xG 0.76–0.22 (77%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Bourque – Forsberg2:05
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson5:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok9:33
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:02
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Volchenkov – Ekholm10:01
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Bartley – Jones16:07
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).