Sat, Feb 7, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 39 | 015 | 15 | 429 |
| TBL | 09 | 110 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33LAKTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:30LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 19:58LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Robyn Regehr, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 0:58TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 1:34TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:46LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Marian Gaborik, Robyn Regehr · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:31LAKJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:59TBLAndrej Sustr: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:59LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:11TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:11LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:04LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min
- P2 12:04TBLRyan Callahan: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 19:03TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52TBLAlex Killorn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:26LAKJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Toffoli9:55
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:35
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore6:14
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Lewis10:28
xG 0.21–0.39 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty9:16
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–3goals 3–0
- Regehr – Greene3:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin7:36
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Connolly7:01
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:11
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Killorn – Paquette – Drouin8:34
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos11:24
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov10:08
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Nesterov – Sustr3:00
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr12:02
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).