Sat, Feb 7, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 016 | 011 | 140 |
| BOS | 115 | 09 | 112 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Travis Hamonic · Slap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 13:12BOSPatrice BergeronPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 12:26BOSLoui ErikssonGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Chris Kelly · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:53NYIRyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:53BOSTorey Krug: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:33BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:47NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:44BOSReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:49NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:46BOSAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P3 4:40BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:27NYICalvin de Haan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:03
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kulemin – Nelson6:58
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome9:04
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:46
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan14:32
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Leddy2:37
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:31
xG 0.84–1.06 (44%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Soderberg – Pastrnak5:22
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg3:25
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Marchand3:03
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand7:41
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton9:32
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug7:51
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid11:00
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).