Sat, Feb 7, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 015 | 116 | 19 | 240 |
| BUF | 18 | 213 | 03 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:17BUFTyler MyersAssists: Chris Stewart, Zemgus Girgensons · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:43BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 5:59BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 15:23DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 9:47DALCody EakinAssists: John Klingberg, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:00DALRyan Garbutt: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:48BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P2 14:10BUFJosh Gorges: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour6:26
xG 0.76–0.15 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:09
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin8:56
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour4:13
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Jokipakka15:02
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 27–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:29
xG 1.38–0.80 (63%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Demers – Benn13:03
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Mitchell11:58
xG 1.26–0.59 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn3:42
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons12:48
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers4:25
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Weber14:37
xG 0.80–0.50 (61%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Weber – Zadorov2:19
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov11:46
xG 0.68–0.88 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).