Sat, Feb 7, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 13 | 09 | 111 | 223 |
| MTL | 014 | 316 | 314 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Peter Harrold, Jaromir Jagr · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:21MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:20MTLLars EllerPPAssists: P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:50MTLTomas PlekanecPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 3:01NJDJacob JosefsonAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Marek Zidlicky · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 12:04MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 12:34MTLDale WeiseAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.38 xG2–5
- P3 15:18MTLDale WeiseAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.22 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:50NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 17:04MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:04NJDTravis Zajac: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:15NJDPeter Harrold: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Tootoo – Josefson8:41
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Cammalleri12:03
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique12:49
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac12:37
xG 0.14–0.96 (13%)attempts 4–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Harrold12:48
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill15:28
xG 0.31–0.71 (30%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson19:06
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 15–27goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise14:40
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk13:24
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 30–8goals 1–1
- Prust – Eller – Sekac3:58
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Prust – Dumont – Sekac5:34
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin16:20
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Markov – Subban19:12
xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 28–8goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu14:34
xG 0.75–0.79 (49%)attempts 15–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).