Sat, Feb 7, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 010 | 014 | 031 |
| VAN | 210 | 214 | 13 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13VANAlexandre BurrowsPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:46VANBo HorvatAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 15:02VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 17:21VANZack KassianAssists: Linden Vey · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 2:05VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 4:19PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P1 6:29PITSidney Crosby: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:02VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:02PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:02PITDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:02VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:05VANDerek Dorsett: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:21PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:26VANDerek Dorsett: Holding2 min
- P3 1:13PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:40PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:08PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:08PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:08VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:59VANAdam Clendening: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:09VANYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 18:13VANLuca Sbisa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:13PITCraig Adams: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Lapierre – Sill5:55
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Sill2:20
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Arcobello7:31
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron9:36
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Pouliot9:09
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres10:38
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang14:57
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows8:50
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat10:58
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Matthias – Bonino8:31
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Higgins – Kassian – Vey7:34
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Sbisa12:17
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Edler – Weber12:03
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Stanton – Clendening11:11
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).