Sun, Feb 8, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 17 | 212 | 428 |
| STL | 012 | 212 | 03 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:52STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:25CHIBryan BickellAssists: David Rundblad, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:53STLDavid BackesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 11:19CHIMarian HossaPPGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Bryan Bickell · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:46CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:32STLRyan Reaves: Interference2 min
- P1 18:15CHIJonathan Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:46STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:46CHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:06STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Sharp – Kane13:15
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger6:11
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Teravainen8:43
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Saad10:20
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson2:30
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson3:35
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Keith9:21
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Oshie12:21
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Berglund – Rattie – Jaskin5:41
xG 0.10–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Goc – Reaves6:06
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Jaskin2:18
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:38
xG 0.90–0.36 (72%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Jackman – Cole12:25
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Butler – Gunnarsson17:03
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).