Sun, Feb 8, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 010 | 24 | 02 | 3 | 325 |
| FLA | 011 | 27 | 015 | 03 | 2 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:37FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Dave Bolland · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 14:27FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 4:44NSHSeth JonesPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 15:17NSHFilip ForsbergPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Brandon Pirri stopped
- 2. NSH Matt Cullen scored
- 3. FLA Brad Boyes scored
- 4. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 5. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 6. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 7. FLA Dave Bolland stopped
- 8. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:44NSHOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:36FLADave Bolland: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:38NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P2 17:04FLAJimmy Hayes: Interference2 min
- P3 3:09FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:00NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 14:36FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Beck9:05
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok10:32
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Fisher – Neal9:34
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg10:06
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:50
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones5:58
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Ekholm4:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad12:14
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall7:52
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bolland – Pirri10:46
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov12:53
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad18:52
xG 1.05–0.63 (63%)attempts 29–17goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson16:20
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic12:22
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).