Sun, Feb 8, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 215 | 07 | 331 |
| BUF | 05 | 23 | 02 | 210 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:19NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 10:20NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Travis Hamonic, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–0
- P2 11:22NYIMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 12:33BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–1
- P2 14:57BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:03NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:03BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50NYITravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P3 0:18NYINikolay Kulemin: Holding2 min
- P3 1:11BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:04NYIBrian Strait: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:28
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome9:32
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:32
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Kulemin – Nelson – Zolnierczyk10:03
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hamonic15:35
xG 0.96–0.29 (77%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:53
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:57
xG 0.26–0.63 (30%)attempts 14–6goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Foligno – Flynn11:01
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers6:46
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell11:28
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons11:56
xG 0.02–0.94 (2%)attempts 3–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zadorov15:06
xG 0.80–0.61 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Gorges – Strachan2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Zadorov2:14
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).