Sun, Feb 8, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 112 | 212 | 328 |
| TBL | 310 | 19 | 14 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Victor Hedman, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:42TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:52TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 4:49ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Matt Beleskey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 14:27TBLBrian BoyleGWGAssists: Brett Connolly, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
- P3 6:14TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 14:57ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ilya Bryzgalov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 17:26ANAEric BrewerAssists: Nate Thompson, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:36ANARyan Kesler: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:51ANADevante Smith-Pelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:26TBLLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:26ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:11TBLOndrej Palat: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:50ANARyan Kesler: Holding2 min
- P2 15:05TBLNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41ANANate Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:44ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:44TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:35ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
- P3 13:27TBLValtteri Filppula: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:57TBLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Maroon – Silfverberg3:51
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Smith-Pelly – Rakell5:20
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Palmieri – Rakell2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri7:37
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Fowler10:28
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Stoner – Vatanen11:42
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm13:14
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Connolly – Brown5:17
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos9:40
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
- Killorn – Paquette – Drouin6:51
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:44
xG 0.25–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Nesterov8:29
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Hedman – Sustr12:27
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Barberio – Witkowski11:46
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).