Sun, Feb 8, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 3, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 014 | 28 | 328 |
| WPG | 011 | 49 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57COLTyson BarrieAssists: Alex Tanguay, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:04WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 5:42WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 13:24WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.32 xG1–3
- P2 15:48WPGBryan LittlePPGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 7:07COLMatt DucheneAssists: Jarome Iginla, Nate Guenin · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 11:03WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 17:40COLAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Duchene, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:10COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:10WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:34COLMatt Duchene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:01COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:56WPGChris Thorburn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:33WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:07COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:10COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:46COLJan Hejda: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 8:19COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:19WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:35WPGMichael Frolik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Everberg5:12
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Talbot – Cliche5:14
xG 0.14–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:56
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene11:54
xG 0.45–0.86 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Redmond12:39
xG 0.65–0.50 (56%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
- Stuart – Barrie2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden11:30
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Slater – Frolik6:31
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Slater – Frolik – Galiardi3:15
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:36
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Peluso – Cormier4:41
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba4:51
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian11:22
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pardy – Chiarot9:58
xG 0.17–0.79 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).