Sun, Feb 8, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 114 | 29 | 334 |
| BOS | 07 | 013 | 115 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:38MTLDale WeiseAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 0:56MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 15:29BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Milan Lucic, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:29MTLAndrei MarkovENUnassisted · Snap, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:16BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:33BOSBrad Marchand: Charging2 min
- P3 6:00BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Weise12:26
xG 1.09–0.83 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk14:41
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Prust – de la Rose – Sekac2:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Bournival – Thomas – de la Rose5:49
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban20:07
xG 1.11–0.99 (53%)attempts 23–23goals 2–1
- Emelin – Subban2:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Gilbert2:43
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Pastrnak12:54
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg13:04
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Marchand2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham4:59
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – McQuaid6:37
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug7:40
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton14:27
xG 1.08–0.99 (52%)attempts 23–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).