Mon, Feb 9, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 112 | 08 | 224 |
| NJD | 16 | 03 | 05 | 114 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Martin Havlat, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:24EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Jordan Eberle, Teddy Purcell · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:45EDMNail YakupovPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:19NJDMarek Zidlicky: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:40NJDAdam Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:30NJDAdam Larsson: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min
- P3 6:38NJDDainius Zubrus: Holding2 min
- P3 6:38EDMIiro Pakarinen: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Josefson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:49
xG 1.01–0.31 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer11:01
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen5:54
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Fraser – Yakupov8:28
xG 0.07–0.31 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom13:34
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Schultz – Marincin2:37
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin13:44
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique5:53
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Jagr – Zubrus – Gomez4:52
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Josefson6:37
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Cammalleri8:41
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Merrill15:44
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Harrold2:26
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson14:41
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).