Mon, Feb 9, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Los Angeles Kings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 116 | 117 | 444 |
| CBJ | 16 | 17 | 113 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40CBJJack SkilleAssists: Artem Anisimov, David Savard · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:12LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Robyn Regehr · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:01LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Dwight King · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:16CBJScott HartnellAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 15:34LAKJeff CarterAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jamie McBain · Tip-in, 0.47 xG3–2
- P3 1:49LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 18:07CBJDavid SavardAssists: Nick Foligno, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:59LAKKyle Clifford: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:30CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:30LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:00CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar12:50
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli13:28
xG 1.54–0.95 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 3–1
- Clifford – Nolan – Shore5:39
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Williams – Stoll – Lewis11:56
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin18:16
xG 1.60–0.20 (89%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- McBain – McNabb9:06
xG 1.40–0.30 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Doughty – McNabb3:30
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Calvert8:58
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp2:23
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Tropp4:56
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Johansen14:01
xG 0.13–0.58 (19%)attempts 3–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Connauton5:25
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Leopold – Goloubef5:23
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef11:00
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).