Tue, Feb 10, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 5, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 310 | 113 | 19 | 532 |
| BOS | 116 | 217 | 011 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:28DALVernon FiddlerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:43BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:38DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Goligoski, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 17:53DALJamie BennAssists: Patrick Eaves, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 0:26BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 6:42BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Chris Kelly, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 13:42DALTrevor DaleySHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 19:27DALErik ColeENAssists: Jason Demers, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:43DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking5 min
- P1 3:43DALAntoine Roussel: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:55BOSDougie Hamilton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:06DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:06DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:06BOSCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:34DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin11:16
xG 1.11–1.07 (51%)attempts 15–22goals 2–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky8:59
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Eakin – Garbutt3:41
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Ritchie4:19
xG 0.40–0.54 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Benn3:44
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn7:59
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Jokipakka11:07
xG 0.46–0.76 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg9:04
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:09
xG 1.02–0.97 (51%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Krejci – Lucic – Pastrnak12:52
xG 0.22–0.26 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Campbell – Paille – Cunningham8:03
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug8:24
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton5:11
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Krug4:16
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).