Tue, Feb 10, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 113 | 015 | 236 |
| NYI | 111 | 112 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17EDMRyan HamiltonPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Iiro Pakarinen · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P1 13:20NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Matt Martin, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 11:27NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Thomas Hickey, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:34EDMAnton LanderPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 15:23NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Colin McDonald, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:54NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:29EDMMatt Hendricks: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:48NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:05NYIJosh Bailey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05NYIJosh Bailey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:05EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:49EDMDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:58
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen8:01
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:25
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Hamilton – Yakupov10:27
xG 0.43–1.22 (26%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom17:37
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Ference – Petry13:52
xG 0.89–0.82 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Fayne – Marincin15:49
xG 0.95–1.25 (43%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:35
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:41
xG 1.16–0.87 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome12:18
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Nelson – Zolnierczyk7:50
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy16:27
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:22
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Strait – Hamonic16:56
xG 1.28–1.41 (47%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).