Wed, Feb 11, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Vancouver Canucks 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 316 | 17 | 11 | 536 |
| CHI | 07 | 115 | 319 | 00 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:57CHIPatrick KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 4:42VANLinden VeyAssists: Chris Higgins, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:44VANBo HorvatAssists: Ronalds Kenins, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 11:19VANZack KassianAssists: Luca Sbisa, Chris Higgins · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 12:48CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.40 xG3–2
- P3 15:23VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 17:49CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:05CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 1:20VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:00CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:58VANHenrik Sedin: Interference2 min
- P3 2:54VANDerek Dorsett: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:28VANDaniel Sedin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:25VANRadim Vrbata: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:14
xG 0.71–0.19 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Dorsett – Matthias – Kassian9:13
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins11:13
xG 0.67–0.91 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Higgins – Vey12:59
xG 0.41–0.74 (36%)attempts 13–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev18:40
xG 1.48–1.34 (53%)attempts 22–27goals 3–0
- Stanton – Clendening11:39
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa17:15
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad11:00
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Richards – Sharp – Kane8:29
xG 0.53–0.61 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Richards – Versteeg – Kane3:32
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger4:42
xG 0.00–0.15 (2%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson2:11
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Rundblad14:00
xG 0.90–0.88 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Rozsival – Oduya12:29
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).