Wed, Feb 11, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 113 | 27 | 13 | 533 |
| SJS | 06 | 313 | 110 | 01 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02WSHJay BeagleAssists: Brooks Orpik, Michael Latta · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 0:21SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:43SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 6:17WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:48SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Matt Nieto, Patrick Marleau · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 11:17WSHJay BeagleAssists: John Carlson, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 13:26WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 14:29SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 2:42WSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Mike Green, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:06SJSMatt Irwin: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:11SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:11WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:00WSHEric Fehr: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:05SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr14:16
xG 1.13–0.26 (82%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Beagle – Latta – Burakovsky7:15
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:25
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 1–2
- Chimera – Brouwer – Kuznetsov10:48
xG 0.23–0.70 (25%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson19:26
xG 1.17–0.55 (68%)attempts 22–18goals 3–1
- Niskanen – Alzner15:57
xG 1.10–1.02 (52%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
- Green – Alzner3:23
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Wingels – Hertl6:31
xG 1.16–0.19 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto12:40
xG 1.13–0.57 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Sheppard – Scott – Goodrow4:36
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Scott – Goodrow – Tierney2:25
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Tennyson15:12
xG 1.51–0.83 (65%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
- Hannan – Burns17:34
xG 1.08–0.81 (57%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Dillon – Mueller15:50
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).