Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 212 | 014 | 234 |
| NYI | 218 | 18 | 015 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 4:03NYICasey CizikasAssists: Colin McDonald, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 1:32TORRichard PanikAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P2 4:09TORTrevor SmithAssists: Richard Panik, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 12:02NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:32TORStephane Robidas: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:00TORTrevor Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:41NYIJohn Tavares: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:33NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:33TORRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:33
xG 1.08–0.44 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – Holland – Panik3:16
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Komarov – Holland2:21
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Booth – Smith4:17
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Holzer11:02
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Franson – Gardiner15:20
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly13:57
xG 0.44–1.28 (26%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:20
xG 1.82–0.40 (82%)attempts 24–12goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Grabovski – Strome8:47
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Nelson8:10
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas10:13
xG 0.67–0.87 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hamonic16:06
xG 2.00–1.08 (65%)attempts 17–19goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:19
xG 0.94–0.48 (66%)attempts 25–9goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:53
xG 0.49–1.02 (33%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).