Thu, Feb 12, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 16 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 529 |
| OTT | 06 | 010 | 416 | 01 | 0 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01PITKris LetangAssists: Beau Bennett, Brandon Sutter · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:57PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rob Scuderi · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 13:52PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Blake Comeau, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:09OTTMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 9:04OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 14:53PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–2
- P3 15:51OTTMark StoneAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 16:04OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Eric Gryba, Mark Borowiecki · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 2. PIT David Perron scored
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 11:27PITKris Letang: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 16:05OTTClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P2 17:16PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:25PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:35PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:21PITChris Kunitz: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron13:16
xG 0.92–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett11:35
xG 0.89–0.06 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Comeau – Hornqvist13:07
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Adams – Lapierre – Sill8:38
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang20:26
xG 1.80–0.56 (76%)attempts 20–15goals 3–1
- Bortuzzo – Pouliot11:12
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres17:55
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Chiasson – Lazar5:05
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone15:55
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- MacArthur – Condra – Lazar5:39
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Chiasson – Zibanejad6:43
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson23:32
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 23–8goals 2–1
- Gryba – Borowiecki10:48
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:42
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).